Super Bowl LIX is just days away, featuring a rematch of Super Bowl LVII between Kansas City and Philadelpia. The Chiefs are seeking their third straight Super Bowl win, while the Eagles are looking for their second all-time and some revenge from Super Bowl LVII, where they lost 38-35. But both teams are different from the matchup two seasons ago. Ahead of Super Bowl Sunday, I previewed three key facrtors in the game and predicted the winner and who takes home Super Bowl MVP.
The week of Super Bowl LIX has finally arrived as the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs are front and center in New Orleans.
Both teams have been dominant in the regular season and at times, the playoffs.
Kansas City comes in as the favorite. Having won back-to-back Super Bowls, the Chiefs are seeking their third straight and a chance to become the only team to three-peat in the Super Bowl era.
Andy Reid and Co. got off to a hot start in the regular season, boasting a perfect 9-0 record before a Week 10 defeat at the hands of Buffalo. Kansas City avenged its regular season loss against the Bills two weeks ago in the AFC Championship, 32-29.
But this season, the Chiefs have not dominated opponents in the same way they have in the past. Rather than the jaw-dropping touchdown totals and points scored by Patrick Mahomes and the offense, Kansas City is beating teams with their stifling defense.
One last test remains though in the Eagles, who wrapped up the regular season with a 14-3 record and No. 2 seed in the NFC.
Philadelphia’s playoff run began with a 22-10 victory over Green Bay in the Wild Card round. Then they ran past the Rams at a snowy Lincoln Financial Field, 28-22. In the NFC Championship game, they dominated fellow divisional rival Washington 55-23, earning its third Super Bowl appearance in the last eight seasons.
The Eagles have been led by sensational first-team All-Pro running back Saquon Barkley. Barkley has rushed for over 2,000 yards this season, setting a single-season record for Philly and carrying the Eagles’ offense.
Defensively, they’ve flipped the script from a season ago, going from one of the worst defenses in the NFL to one of the league’s best. The main source of those improvements has been the ascension of defensive tackle Jalen Carter and the instant success of rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean.
With plenty of new faces and some of the same from years ago, the Eagles are looking for revenge after losing in Super Bowl LVII to the Chiefs, 38-35. If they can come out on top, they’ll hoist their second Lombardi Trophy in franchise history.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
1) Who wins the battle on the ground?
The Eagles have been the most dominant rushing offense this season, headlined by likely Offensive Player of the Year winner Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. However, Kansas City’s strength has been their defense. Particularly it's run defense.
While they have struggled in the playoffs, allowing 149 rushing yards to Houston and 147 to Buffalo, they ranked in the top 10 in rush yards allowed per game in the regular season. They surrendered just over 100 yards rushing on average (101.8), ranking eighth in the league.
Further, Kansas City ranked second in yards after contact per run allowed, seventh in yards before contact per run and third in explosive run rate allowed (Jared Smola on X). Steve Spagnuolo’s defense allowed over 100 rush yards just seven times this year.
But they haven’t faced an offensive line or running back like the Eagles and Saquon Barkley; Something has to give.
In 18 regular season games, Philadelphia ran for an average of 179.3 yards per game, the second-best in the NFL. They led the league in rushing attempts per game at 36.5 and rushing play percentage, keeping the ball on the ground 55.7% of the time.
In the playoffs, the Eagles ran the ball 34 times against the Packers and Rams and 36 times against the Commanders. Barkley went for over 100 yards in each of those games and scored five touchdowns in that stretch.
Barkley has posted over 100 yards in all but five games this season en route to his 2,000-yard campaign. He also has been impossible to bring down, ranking No. 2 in the NFL in yards after contact with 891 (Sumer Sports).
The dual-threat ability of quarterback Jalen Hurts will play a role as well. Everyone knows the success of the “tush-push” that the Eagles have made famous. But Hurts is more than just a QB sneak-reliant runner. He holds the record for the most rushing touchdowns by a QB in postseason history.
But with Hurts still nursing a knee injury he suffered in the Divisional round against Los Angeles, we’ll have to wait and see how mobile he is after three weeks.
2) Who will protect the quarterback better?
Both teams were in the middle of the pack in total sacks in the regular season–Philadelphia ranked No. 15, Kansas City No. 19. But in the playoffs, they’ve turned the pass rush up another notch.
The Eagles and Chiefs have 10 sacks in the postseason, yet the Chiefs have played one less game. In the NFC Championship, Philly sacked Jayden Daniels three times. For Kansas City, they brought Josh Allen down twice in the AFC Championship.
Philadelphia has employed a fierce rotation on the defensive line. 2023 first-round pick Nolan Smith leads all players in sacks this postseason with four while Jalen Carter has added two from his defensive tackle spot.
Linebackers Oren Burks and Josh Sweat have rotated in and have been effective. Alongside Carter on the interior, Jordan Davis has caused issues with his size but mostly in the run game. Moro Ojomo and Milton Williams have provided a better pass-rushing upside next to Carter, in place of Davis.
The challenge for the Eagles will be getting to Patrick Mahomes before he gets the ball out of his hands.
According to Pro Football Focus, Mahomes’ average time-to-throw this season is 2.76 seconds, ranking 34th among quarterbacks. In his career, Mahomes holds a 31-2 record when having between 2.3 and 2.8 seconds to throw (Mike Sando, The Athletic). But when those numbers increase by one second, giving him 3.31 seconds or more to throw, he is just 2-8.
Kansas City has been led by a large pass-rush committee, too.
Future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Chris Jones is still around, making life miserable for opposing QBs. But the production of third-year defensive end George Karlaftis has been key for the reigning champs.
Karlaftis led the Chiefs in sacks in the regular season with eight and has done the same in the playoffs, posting three in the two games they’ve played. Last season, Karlaftis was tied for first on the team in sacks in the regular season but held sole possession of first in the playoffs.
Along with Karlaftis, fifth-year veteran Tershawn Wharton has given opposing offensive lines issues. Wharton was second on Kansas City in sacks this season (6.5) and has recorded two so far in the playoffs.
But with defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo dialing up the blitzes for the Chiefs, everyone is a threat to come after the quarterback at all times.
3) How do the Eagles defend Travis Kelce?
Although Kelce has had a “down year” for his future Hall of Fame standards, the Eagles have to focus on slowing him down. Now 35 years old, Kelce posted career lows for receiving yards (823) and touchdowns (3) in the regular season.
The playoffs have shown mixed results for the superstar tight end.
He was unstoppable against Houston, catching seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown. But against Buffalo, he had a meager two receptions for 19 yards. In his four career Super Bowl appearances, Kelce has averaged 7.8 receptions for 87.5 yards, he has also caught two touchdowns in those four games.
Defensively, the Eagles have been the best against the pass in the NFL, allowing the fewest passing yards per game in the regular season. In the playoffs, they’ve given up 271.3 yards passing per game, nearly a 100-yard increase from the regular season.
In the NFC Championship, they struggled to cover Zach Ertz, who went for 104 yards on 11 catches. Both of those numbers were playoff career highs for Ertz. In that game, Ertz had an average separation of 4.1 yards from the nearest defender per target according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
The Eagles will have to decide if they want to rely on their defensive backs or linebackers to take on the challenge of covering Kelce in man coverage.
If they cover him with their defensive backs like they did against Washington, Kansas City should expect to see a healthy dose of safeties Reed Blankenship and C.J. Gardner-Johnson and nickel corner Cooper DeJean. But if Philadelphia chooses a more physical route with its linebackers, standout Zack Baun will likely draw the assignment.
Prediction: Who wins? Who is named Super Bowl MVP?
They have been the best two teams in the NFL this season but only one can take home the Lombardi Trophy.
The biggest factor in this game will be Philadelphia’s ability or inability to run the ball on Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. Kansas City hasn’t played a running back like Saquon Barkley yet and frankly, nobody has had an answer for him. The difference in this game very well could be keeping Barkley around 120 yards, which is outrageous to say.
If Barkley gets loose like we’ve seen all season, not only could he lead the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory but he would likely also become the first running back to win Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis in 1997.
Kansas City, on the other hand, will have to have an outstanding performance from their wide receivers and Travis Kelce. The question mark surrounding who matches up with Kelce gives me concerns for the Eagles. Even though he is posting career lows this season, he’s Travis Kelce, do you need to say anything else?
But if Kelce is held in check, who steps up? Rookie receiver Xavier Worthy has been a field stretcher for the Chiefs this year and has made explosive plays in short-yardage situations too. DeAndre Hopkins and Hollywood Brown, both playing in their first Super Bowl, will have to find ways to get open against standout rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay.
It’s safe to say that Philadelphia has more talent than Kansas City and probably more depth. But you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone writing off Mahomes and the back-to-back champions.
Regardless of the “super team” label that the Eagles have received, I can’t bring myself to pick against the team that has won this game three of the last five times it’s been played and is looking for their third straight.
And J.J. Watt said it best himself after Kansas City’s AFC Championship win over Buffalo. "Football players had the Tom Brady era, and now it's the Patrick Mahomes era."
Kansas City wins their third consecutive Super Bowl, 31-27, becoming the first team in the Super Bowl era to three-peat. Patrick Mahomes wins his fourth Super Bowl MVP, moving him to No. 2 all-time behind Tom Brady.
*All stats were received from ESPN Stats & Info., TeamRankings.com, PFF.com and NFL Next Gen Stats*
Comments